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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers rising collectively. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still