Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
